Australian Open
Written by: Lew Ford
The Dogs could be barking tonight down under.
These are matches that have a risk factor, so I would recommend not wagering full units on any of these plays.
Frances Tiafoe +205 O Taylor Fritz $50 to win $110
I would make Fritz a slight favorite in this match-up of young Americans, so I think there is value at this number. Fritz has the higher ranking at #22 vs #34 and owns a 2-1 head-to-head advantage. Fritz does have an advantage on his first serve with a career winning 76% first service points on hard court. Tiafoe should counter that with a good return game and his athleticism will help win the longer rallies. Early season Fitness and conditioning will be a factor in this match-up and I give Tiafoe the edge in that category. I expect this to go four or five sets, so alternative bet would be Over 39.5 games -105 or Over 10.5 games in the first set at +145.
Clara Tauson +350 Over Anett Kontaveit $50 wins $175
Betting against Kontaveit does have risky feeling to it, but I like Tauson to pull the upset. Anett had a dominate finish to the 2021 season and a lot of that success is baked into this number. The reality is Kontaveit is a veteran player who is 26 and at her all-time high in terms of ranking #7. She won three titles post 2021 US Open against watered down fields (She did have nice wins over Halep and Muguruza). Clara Tauson has the potential to be top 10 player, she won two titles last year at the age of 18 and got that critical experience a younger player needs. The 6’0, 19yrs old Dane possesses powerful groundstrokes and can stand on the baseline and hit most players off the court. This is a favorable match-up, because that’s what Kontaveit likes to do, and I think Tauson can do it better. Nerves will likely be a major factor for Tauson, and unforced error will likely key stat in a great 2nd round match-up.
Xinyu Wang +335 Over Aryna Sabalinka $25 to win $83.75
This is more of bet against Sabalinka, based on results so far this season. Aryna is a dominate player when serving well, but so far this year her serve has been a disaster. She lost her first two matches of the season, hitting 39 double faults and forced to serve underhanded at one point. She won her first-round match, but I am fading her until she beats a good player. Xinyu Wang is a good young player, that had her first Grand Slam win over the talent American Ann Li.
Big Bomb
Sebastian Baez +1000 Over Stefanos Tsitsipas $10 to win $100
Tsitsipas is returning from off season surgery and the hangover of not winning the French Open up 2-0, in one of the worst meltdowns of all time. I don’t think he is 100% mentally or physically and will fade him to some degree each round. Baez is good young player that dominated the challenger tour and made the NextGen finals in 2021. Over 31.5 total games -110 or taking the +7.5 -110 is option here too.
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