Written by: Bryds
After Wednesday, we should have a better idea who’s fast outside the Cup Series draft. Timed qualifying is Wednesday night en route to the Dual Qualifying heat races on Thursday. Those two events will set the order and set aside the few teams who won’t make the race.
The Wednesday qualifying will tell us who has the best individual car, while the Duals / Duels will hopefully show us who is fastest with team and drafting help. NASCAR already made a quick rules change after the Tuesday practices, but the initial feel is a slight advantage to Ford. Best price for a Ford win on Sunday looks like +175 at MGM right now, and it’s already contracted to +150 at most other legal books.
It’s been covered earlier this week, but my general mood so far is long Logano for the season and in matchups this week, short Truex & Keselowski. Byron may well be the fastest Chevy in isolation so far this week and was fast on plate tracks last year with few top finishes to show for it. As good as Cup champ Kyle Larson was last year, Byron was better on a composite of all track types than teammate Chase Elliott, and Larson wasn’t that much faster than Byron in most of the nerd stats.
We will likely learn less from the Thursday night Duels / Duals as some teams are specifically looking to conserve their cars, owing to shortages of parts and some teams not even having a backup car ready for the weekend. We may even see some start & park activity by the timid. Less driving and less competition means less drafting and less window to who has an advantage in the draft conditions on Sunday
Almost everything this week up until the actual Daytona 500 on Sunday afternoon at 2:30 EST is on FS1. Full schedule is here, but this is a complicated week for the Cup cars.After the Wednesday night qualifying and Thursday heats, the Cup cars will practice again at 6 PM Friday and a final time at 10:30 AM on Saturday. If you are riding the lines as they shape, there are legit four more Cup sessions where a card is being turned over on the way to the River on Sunday.
We will be watching them all, but this many metaphorical “cards” to flip in a Cup hand in one week is not typical. It’s also why our early week plays have been very light, both to Win and in matchups. Only allocated a couple units to those on Monday, and some season props bets as well.
The season Championship future bets have moved virtually zero this week, but will lock out before the Daytona 500 on Sunday. Get them in.
Xfinity and Truck lines and matchups have started to drop. Those are typically a Tuesday night or Wednesday morning phenomenon. Justin Allgaier feels too cheap at FD and in most early matchups that have dropped. Truck lines look pretty uniform across books. Will be generally short DiBenedetto, long Enfinger and long both Smiths this week and for the early season. Looking forward to Championship and Final Four lines dropping someplace for Xfinity & Trucks soon.
Usually it’s worth waiting for FanDuel on best priced lines to win races in all three series, though we monitor the 7-8 local legal books and will also generally advocate some matchups from BetUS for those of you who have access offshore.
Where I live, Barstool, Bet Rivers/Sugarhouse and DraftKings are usually the first movers on Cup lines, but very rarely do any bargains show up when those post on Mondays.