Written by: Ian Robins
Review of Last Week:
Last week had a chance to be a great weekend, but it all came crumbling down on Sunday. Davis Riley, who started the day inside the top 15, opened up with a triple bogey on the first hole and his +200 Top 40 bet was done. Another example of what went wrong was Seamus Power had a 7 shot lead in his tournament matchup against Russell Henley after 3 rounds, at the end of the tournament, the leaderboard saw the two tied and a push for our biggest tournament matchup of the weeknd. Sungjae Im just missed his top 10 finish, ending in 11th place. Brian Harman did come through with a very nice tournament finishing inside the top 5 to easily cash his top 30 bet, Bez also had no issues as top South African, as he was the only one to make the cut. The DFS play of the week, Luke List, finished in the top 20, for a very nice weekend. At the end, longshot Hudson Swafford survived the leaderboard and made some big shots to claim his 3rd PGA Tour title. Swafford continued the trend of long shots winning here, which is something to note for future events.
Photo Credit: Torrey Pines Golf Course
This tournament will be played on two different courses, the Torrey Pines North Course and the South Course. These two courses vary dramatically with the South Course being the more difficult of the two by a long way. The cut Rounds will be played in the South Course as well, for ¾ total rounds. It is imperative to get a good score on the North Course the day you tee it off. We will dig into the South Course for our breakdown. This course is a very long 7800 yard par 72, with narrow fairways and smaller greens. It is played on typical California Poa greens and features some very thick Kakua rough. This course hosted the US Open last year and is known for being a very tough test. Course history matters here as well. It is crucial to have good tee shots that find fairways, but also with some length. Greens in regulation will also be crucial to avoid trouble. We will put an emphasis on good long iron players and players that excel off the tee with some power. We will also look at players that putt well on Poa, as it is very predictable.
While this is definitely our strongest field to date, the top tier starts and ends with Jon Rahm. Rahm has some incredible course history here, including his first professional win along with his first major victory, the US Open last year. Rahm’s stroke gained dominance at this course is undeniable and his ability to play well here year after year cannot be ignored. While it is hard to back Rahm at his current price of 7-1, he will be a play in daily fantasy, and he will also be a target in play.
(Image credit: Ezra Shaw, Getty Images)
We are going to look at two players here, these two player have real win equity. First up will be Tony Finau. Finau has excellent course history at Torrey with several top 10 finishes. He also likes this course as his top putting course, which is typically his worst skill. Finau is great at avoiding bogeys and three putts, which helps in this course. Sungjae Im is another player that I will go back to the well to here. IM has been playing very well, including a 11th place finish last week. Im failed to take advantage of the easy La Quinta course last week and ultimately cost him a chance at victory. His metrics match up here and will looking to catch him in good form.
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A couple longer priced golfers we will
Look at this week are Talor Gooch and Lanto Griffin. Both players are precious winners on tour and come in on very good form runs. Gooch has a great all around game and his iron play and putting will be definite plusses here. Griffin falls into similar categories as he is an excellent long iron player, coupled with good putting metrics. Two very deep long shots to look at are Taylor Pendrith and Wydahm Clark. Both players have similar skill sets of big hitters with very good short games and putting. Pendrith is one of the top risers from the Korn Ferry Tour, while Clark is an experienced player fresh off back to back strong performances.
DFS/ Live Betting tip of the week:
Stacking courses is a strategy I will employ this week. Based on previous year results, the best combination has been stacking players who play the hard South Course First, followed by the easier North Course. We will follow that strategy when looking at Tee Times and starting positions. It will also be a live betting opportunity as we hope the players who have decent rounds relative to the field at the more difficult South course will present value after their first round.