Honestly, this young NASCAR season has been a randomizer.
Favorites have been terrible, new winners plentiful, and consistency for top drivers has been hard to find.
After six races, essentially one-sixth of the season, only one favorite (or even close) has won a race. Once.
In fact, every race but that one (Kyle Larson at Vegas) has been won with odds of +1500 or even cheaper.
The winners of the first six races were priced at +3000 (Cindric at Daytona), +400 (Larson at Vegas), +2000 (Bowman at Fontana), +6000 or higher (Briscoe at Phoenix.....which was as cheap as +10000 when I bought it at open), +1500 (Byron at Atlanta), and +4000 (Chastain last week at COTA).
No one who led the most laps in a race in the first six weeks was a favorite either. Chastain led the most laps in his +4000 win last weekend at COTA, and led the most laps at Fontana when he was a +10000 long shot.
Ditto for poles belonging to everyone priced cheaper than +1200. Daniel Suarez was fastest to start at COTA last week and was priced at +10000 when he opened this time last week. Led a bunch of laps, won Stage 1, and even got bid down to +800 on in-play pricing before a flat tire.
That's why this weekend is a quandary at Richmond.
It's the Toyota Owners' 400. Literally a Toyota themed race.
The Joe Gibbs Team Toyotas have been the historically best cars here. This is Denny Hamlin's home track or something. Martin Truex has been a +700 favorite or similar in recent years.
But so far this season, the Toyotas have been universally terrible. Perpetual fourth wheel Christopher Bell had the pole at Fontana, but those guys and Kyle Busch have mostly been irrelevant in Cup results this season.
And, Richmond is most similar to Phoenix of the six tracks so far.......which was generally a miss for me outside of getting Briscoe to Win in my DARTS.
Until we see Saturday AM qualifying & practice, I don't have a ton yet this week for the Cup race.
There is virtually no obvious early value or pricing differential in the pricing to Win so far this week. Few bargains.
The books are now scared of this problem of deep long shots winning......so they've raised prices on a lot of guys who've shown speed in that midrange. Now, seemingly every car is priced between +1000 and +2200.
We will make our money this week on matchups and Top 5/10s.
Expensive big names Elliott and Logano are doing well in the points......but haven't won yet or been that close. If you're looking for a season prop bargain, you're almost out of time to buy some Bowman at +1800 at PointsBet. Throw another dart at that.