Remember, it's a tighter schedule this weekend for all three of the NASCAR top series races.
Will Byron dropped down from Cup to win Thursday night in Trucks, at +800 or so. Subs got him for a Top 5 and cashed that along with another easy Top 5 on John Hunter Nemechek. Went 2-2 on matchups for an up day on Trucks.
Xfinity cars run Friday night, and the Cup guys practice and qualify on Friday afternoon, so we're trying to get this out for you before those early Cup lines close.
Regardless the series, Martinsville flat-out does NOT give you fluke winners. It gives you more wrecks & attrition than Richmond, less tire wear, and veteran drivers win almost exclusively. Lots of pit road penalties. This is a technique track that is usually terrible for the inexperienced.
Favorites dominate, use track position to stay out front, and it's rare that anyone outside the Top 10 in pre-race odds ever sees the front.
And after seeing Toyota back to competence at Richmond, you can probably throw the Truex/Kyle Busch/Hamlin trio into that Top 8 with Blaney, Logano, Elliott and either Byron or Larson. Throw in last year's winner Alex Bowman, and that's your core Top 10 cars.
Early week, we told subs to take the DARTS on Chastain and Reddick just based on cheap price (+3000 or cheaper at a couple spots) and their recent speed. Best price of the favorites, compared to computer-modeled projections is probably Hamlin. Last week's winner, Denny Hamlin has a best price of +1000 at FanDuel.
You can also make a case for Kyle Busch after last week's great effort and finish despite a late penalty. He's also in the +1000 area. Ditto for Byron, especially after he looked so good last night here in Trucks. Hendrick has generally been good for winning one of the two Martinsville races every year since like 1995.
How to play it? Not putting much on anyone to Win.....but there are lots of Top 3 bargains around, mostly at FanDuel and Barstool where I live. Bally's has the best Top 5s, by far, if you are in one of their states.
Remember, a "good price" on a Top 3 is 25% of the price to win or better.
Here's the example......Hamlin's best price to Win is +1000 at FanDuel. His Top 3 price there is +270, which would equate to a +1080 to win.
If you play Top 5s, the ratio there is usually about 1:7......as in, say, this week, Chase Elliott is +700 to win, a fair price for a Top 5 is +100 or cheaper. DraftKings usually has the worst pricing on these Top 3s and 5s based on this conversion.
So, pre-qualifying, would play some well-priced Top 3s and 5s on Hamlin, Blaney and Kyle Busch in Cup.
Longer shots? Love taking shots on some Top 10s. Best prices are mostly at Barstool. Would nibble on Keselowski and Austin Dillon as we did last week.
UPDATED AT 3:48 PM........IGNORE THIS......Allmendinger hit with big inspection penalty and likely will miss qualifying. Ignore him until Saturday night.
Best deep bargain is AJ Allmendinger for a Top 10. +400 at Barstool and +325 at MGM. Has a bunch of Top 10 finishes here, and as a non-full time driver in Cup, will likely run a different pit strategy ignoring points. Will be a binary result, but a lot of folks who are great on road courses are very good here.
My parlay dart for the week is stacking that AJ Allmendinger Top 10 with Ty Gibbs to Win or Top 3 in tonight's Xfinity race. Lotto ticket to pay +2500 or more at Barstool.
Deepest Top 10/20 thoughts for pennies would be Bubba Wallace (two Trucks wins a decade ago here), Harrison Burton (winner here in Xfinity) and Todd Gilliland (great here in Trucks).
Speaking of the Xfinity race, cream rises here. Price for Gibbs to win has gone up after he grabbed the pole yesterday. Is still out there at +450 to win and an even more fair +130 for Top 3 at Draft Kings.
Would buy some of both, and then insure it with some Gragson Top 3 or 5.
Like Cup, don't see any real outside fluke winner here. Allgaier hasn't won in 30+ races and is too expensive. Berry won his first race here last year, and should be nearly automatic to the Top 5, at slightly minus dollars (-125 perhaps).
Allmendinger for a Top 5 in Xfinity around +175 is probably a good idea as well. Cream rises and then just sits here. Don't think anyone cheaper to win (+1000 to +1200) than Allmendinger can win here.
Creed looked great in qualifying, but has yet to really have a good run so far in 2022 in Xfinity.
Ryan Truex may have the fastest car tonight, but should not be a threat to win. And, Dale Earnhardt Jr. is taking his annual Xfinity race tonight.......but man, he looked slow in practice. Maybe he figures it out fast like Jay Sauter did last night. But I would be short him in most matchups.
Short Retzlaff a little in pairs if available.
If offshore gets real cheeky and adds some plays, I would find a way to get long a little Jeb Burton against other guys deep in the field. This is his home track, or close, and his lack of top tier equipment won't kill him here. He won't win at +12500, but I love him against anyone in similar equipment or as a DFS sleeper.
Brett Moffitt was a value as well in matchups, but torched qualifying and went from +8000 to +2500 at most shops. Would be an automatic Top 10 if anyone wrote tickets on Xfinity Top 10s.